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Epidemic Models - United States

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  • Dots are historical data on new and cumulative cases

  • Color coded by date

  • Lines are 30-day ahead predictions (corresponding color coding)

  • Points consistently tracking along lines indicate natural epidemic behavior, and vice versa

  • Greater scattering + variability of consecutive lines indicates greater unpredictability and less consistency in epidemic behavior

  • Red markers indicate statistically significant epidemic changes (Upward triangles: rate increases; Downward triangles: rate decreases; Squares: variance increases)

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