Research >> EAGER >> Differential Equations Epidemic Model

Differential Equations Epidemic Model


The aim of this project is to develop an adaptable framework to model the epidemiological growth of the prescription and illicit opioid co-epidemics over different regional topologies in addition to gaining insights on different growth mechanisms. 

The project uses systems dynamics methods in order to capture the complex systems associated with the prescription and illicit opioid epidemics. Traditional epidemiological modeling techniques are applied in formulating representative differential equations to model transitions between the general public, general opioid exposure, and aberrant use behaviors. This formulation is used to explore the trajectories of prescription opioid misuse, heroin use, and opioid related overdose over different regional areas. Continuing research aims to explore the pipeline by which individuals initiate opioid use, transition between pharmaceutical and illicit products, and recovery from addictive behaviors. The model framework will be used to provide insights into macroscopic effects of policy interventions. 


Published in the 2018 Winter Simulation Conference Proceedings